Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 20.172418 24.254261 28.737831 34.000468 39.979681 46.533340 54.230407
2025-10-19 14.351268 19.735243 26.245187 34.572871 44.812167 56.858348 71.959826
2025-10-26 11.205830 17.158207 24.913654 35.489522 49.245947 66.235684 88.477869
2025-11-02 8.647567 14.641822 23.002923 35.063834 51.521440 72.680822 101.368394
2025-11-09 6.968638 12.943344 21.804135 35.226172 54.297944 79.645979 115.000606
2025-11-16 5.605914 11.409030 20.540392 35.020504 56.371321 85.604500 127.408665
2025-11-23 4.401281 9.856316 18.975674 34.109238 57.238311 89.814125 137.500456
2025-11-30 3.797395 9.214873 18.733211 35.113603 60.861196 97.923209 153.149884
2025-12-07 3.063098 8.157857 17.628572 34.595466 62.089641 102.597172 164.102192
2025-12-14 2.582947 7.493633 17.097064 34.918880 64.565108 109.113592 177.828125
2025-12-21 1.976295 6.393978 15.595410 33.415630 63.996137 111.022271 184.893796
2025-12-28 1.751086 6.118632 15.619761 34.556534 67.728822 119.515688 201.830954
2026-01-04 1.493176 5.721650 15.401303 35.340807 71.092380 127.855902 219.270944
2026-01-11 1.255964 5.311024 15.100155 35.954129 74.228290 136.022012 236.827079
2026-01-18 1.079154 5.012609 14.988808 36.900450 77.965070 145.253709 256.271537
2026-01-25 0.851656 4.466165 14.220117 36.461804 79.210305 150.508750 269.729370
2026-02-01 0.696301 4.090991 13.782760 36.629132 81.516718 157.533685 286.109360
2026-02-08 0.553225 3.688352 13.199356 36.417150 83.086127 163.365212 300.741888
2026-02-15 0.413595 3.212824 12.327323 35.477803 83.210356 166.747781 311.535978
2026-02-22 0.357532 3.078053 12.353143 36.513108 87.126981 176.659923 333.064223
2026-03-01 0.271944 2.735514 11.718885 35.979035 87.959035 181.295829 346.137407
2026-03-08 0.220762 2.538348 11.472242 36.312402 90.496785 188.947631 364.317011
2026-03-15 0.149289 2.136092 10.488150 34.762706 89.151040 189.715737 371.121274